Since the advent of science fiction films, many people have been excited about humanoid robots. A prominent example is C-3PO from Star Wars IV from 1977. Almost 50 years later, humanoid robots are again – or still – on everyone’s lips. Will there be a breakthrough in 2026? A commentary analysis.
Car manufacturers produce humanoid robots
- Research into humanoid robots is intensifying around the globe. A study by the Ingolstadt University of Technology shows that China the development of humanoid robotics dominates with a market share of 39 percent. This is followed by the USA (24 percent) as well as Europe and Japan (twelve percent each).
- There are no specialized companies behind the humanoid robots; primarily car manufacturers – you read that right. The largest manufacturers and most determined researchers include Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, XPENG and Tesla. Your advantage: You are involved in automation in the car sector and have been using industrial robots for years.
- The average net income of a single household in Germany is around 1,850 euros. The costs for humanoid household helpers start at across providers 10,000 euros. In order to buy a robot for their own four walls, the German middle class would have to work for six months without spending a cent.
The big robot competition
Anyone who is enthusiastic about humanoid robots will not be disappointed in 2025. Countless providers presented their latest robots in impressive performances. The Figure 03 from Figure AI is inductively charged and can carry up to 20 kilograms. The Xpeng Iron acts so humanly that viewers are not sure whether it is actually a robot.
And Tesla’s Optimus robot was also impressive when it was presented – especially because it behaved surprisingly humanely when falling. This is exactly where we are right now: 80 percent of all humanoid robots are Prototypes that deliver incredible performances on show stages.
Manufacturers focus on convincing human viewers through humanity, but often fail in everyday life. Just ten percent of all humanoid robots are already in series production.
The reason: To simulate humans in all their facets and abilities still a lot of work needed. The human hand alone has 17,000 tactile receptors. It is not surprising that no humanoid has yet managed to recreate the necessary fine motor skills.
Voices
- Simon Schmidt, division manager at Fraunhofer IPAconducted a study on humanoid robots. He believes that private scaling only occurs if there are sufficient professional areas of application beforehand: “In my opinion, for the successful use of humanoids, it will not only need use cases that are technically possible, but especially business cases that are economically interesting.”
- At this point also sets Elon Musk to. In July 2024, the Tesla boss wrote in a post on
- Robotics researcher Rodney Brooks on the other hand, is skeptical about all presentations. For him, the research projects are a complete waste of money: “If the big technology companies and venture capitalists who are pouring their money into large-scale humanoid training programs only spent 20% of it and instead gave it all to university researchers, I think they would achieve their goals more quickly.”
Hunmanoid robots: Will there be a breakthrough in 2026?
According to a Commerzbank study, around the world could be around by 2030 ten million humanoid robots be in use. By 2050, the market volume is expected to grow to over five trillion (!) US dollars.
These numbers make impressive reading, but they could only be intended to convince people to invest in AI funds. Realistic assessments assume that humanoid robots are actually becoming more important – but not in a private environment.
The first step that Tesla, Hyundai and the Fraunhofer Institute are outlining is the further development of the humanoid robotics in factories. The technical helpers improve their skills in secret.
Coming to 2026 – and probably the years to come – are robots that will do your laundry or take down your trash still science fiction. It doesn’t matter that Elon Musk believes that “AI and robots will replace all jobs” and that we will soon live in a communist utopia in which everyone lives in prosperity, can grow their own vegetables and only has to work when he or she wants to because the robot state regulates everything.
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