Global air passenger demand declined 2.2% in May 2026 as the Middle East conflict continued to disrupt aviation, according to IATA. Despite weaker traffic, airlines achieved a record May load factor, while demand outside the Middle East remained resilient. Europe, Latin America, and Africa posted solid growth, highlighting the industry’s uneven recovery.
Global air passenger demand declined in May for the second consecutive month as the conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt airline operations, although the pace of deterioration eased and most regions outside the conflict zone remained resilient, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), fell 2.2% from a year earlier in May, while airline capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), declined 2.3%. Despite the lower traffic, airlines maintained a record-high May load factor of 83.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from a year ago, suggesting carriers continued to manage capacity tightly amid operational disruptions and elevated costs.
The Middle East remained the overwhelming drag on global performance. Excluding the region, worldwide passenger demand would have risen 0.7% year-on-year, highlighting the underlying strength of international travel demand despite geopolitical tensions.
International traffic declined 1.6% in May compared with the same month last year, while international capacity fell 2.4%. Excluding the Middle East, international demand grew a solid 3.1%, reflecting continued strength across Europe, Latin America, Africa and much of Asia-Pacific.
Domestic travel was weaker, falling 3.1% year-on-year as softness in the United States and China outweighed growth in most other domestic markets.
“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. He noted that Middle Eastern airlines posted a 28.4% decline in demand, an improvement from the 46.6% plunge recorded in April.
“That’s a significant improvement… a sign of the region’s resilience,” Walsh said.
IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) represents and serves airlines with advocacy and global standards for safety, security, efficiency, and sustainability.
Middle East disruptions continue to ripple across global aviation
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has forced airlines to contend with repeated airspace closures, rerouted flights, longer flight times, and higher fuel consumption across one of the world’s busiest aviation corridors. The disruption has affected not only airlines based in the Gulf but also carriers operating long-haul services between Europe and Asia, many of which traditionally rely on Middle Eastern airspace.
Middle Eastern airlines recorded the steepest regional decline globally, with passenger demand falling 28.8% year-on-year while capacity dropped 24.3%. The region’s load factor fell 4.8 percentage points to 76.1%.
However, IATA noted that month-on-month trends indicate the situation is stabilizing. The rate of traffic decline in May was nearly half that recorded in April, suggesting airlines and passengers are gradually adapting to the operational challenges.
High fuel costs continue to pressure airlines
The aviation industry also continues to grapple with elevated operating costs despite a recent decline in crude oil prices.
Jet fuel prices have remained relatively high because of uncertainty surrounding oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy shipping routes. Although benchmark oil prices have retreated from their recent peaks, airlines typically experience a lag before lower crude prices translate into cheaper jet fuel.
Walsh warned that airlines operating on industry-wide profit margins of around 2% have limited room to absorb higher fuel costs.
“Airlines that are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs,” he said.
Higher ticket prices have become one of the defining features of the post-pandemic aviation recovery, although passenger demand has generally remained stronger than many analysts anticipated.
Europe and Latin America lead growth
Outside the Middle East, most international markets continued expanding.
European airlines posted a 3.8% increase in international demand, with capacity rising 2.3% and load factors reaching 85.4%, among the highest globally. IATA highlighted a notable 15% increase in direct traffic between Europe and Asia, reflecting airlines’ continued shift towards nonstop services as travel demand between the two regions strengthens.
Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a more modest 1.3% increase in demand despite capacity falling 1.1%. The region’s load factor climbed to 85.3%, the highest among all regions.
IATA said tighter limits on jet fuel imports in Vietnam led to significant capacity reductions on short-haul routes, contributing to weaker intra-Asia international traffic during the month.
North American airlines registered 1.0% demand growth with capacity increasing 0.6%, while Latin American carriers remained the fastest-growing major region, reporting a 10.5% increase in international traffic as capacity expanded 9.0%.
African airlines also continued their recovery, posting 8.9% demand growth.
Domestic markets weaken
Domestic travel presented a more mixed picture.
Global domestic passenger traffic fell 3.1%, driven largely by declines in China and the United States.
IATA said China’s slowdown may reflect a combination of higher airfares and calendar effects, as the Dragon Boat Festival occurred in June this year rather than May, shifting some leisure travel outside the reporting period.
The US domestic market also experienced a notable decline, extending recent signs of softer demand after several years of exceptionally strong post-pandemic growth. Industry analysts have increasingly pointed to moderating consumer spending and airlines recalibrating domestic capacity following rapid expansion over the past two years.
Most other domestic markets, however, continued recording moderate passenger growth.
Recovery remains intact despite headwinds
The May figures reinforce a broader trend emerging in recent months: geopolitical events and higher operating costs are creating regional disruptions, but global aviation demand remains fundamentally resilient.
Record May load factors indicate airlines continue to fill a historically high proportion of available seats despite reduced capacity and higher fares. Strong international leisure demand, recovering business travel and continued growth in cross-border tourism continue to underpin the industry’s recovery.
While risks remain—from geopolitical tensions to fuel market volatility—the latest figures suggest that outside the conflict-affected Middle East, global air travel continues to expand, albeit at a more measured pace than the rapid post-pandemic rebound seen over the past several years.
