Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor are AI and labor market experts. They don’t expect programmers to be replaced. And neither do other jobs.
Arvind Narayanan is a computer science professor at the elite Princeton University, and Sayash Kapoor is doing his doctorate there. You write a regular, in-depth AI newsletter. Now the two say: AI will not replace the jobs of programmers. And certainly not those of others.
How can that be when we hear about layoffs because of AI almost every day? Founder scene took a look at it.
AI as an excuse
Narayanan and Kapoor go so far as to say that there is a so-called “AI washing”. This means that AI only serves as an excuse to justify dismissals for other reasons.
They cite three examples that were reported in the media. A total of 8,000 people were laid off at Snap, Intuit and Fintech Block. The justification in all three cases referred to AI. But that is pretext or a misunderstanding.
The two researchers looked at what happened afterwards. At Snap, for example, it emerged that an investor had demanded the savings rate. The company has been making losses for years. At Intuit, the boss himself said that the layoffs had nothing to do with AI, that’s what the press made up.
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Only case of AI layoffs: Nespresso
Another clue: In New York State, companies must report layoffs and also state the connection to AI. According to the company, out of 25,000 people laid off, only 46 became unemployed because of AI. This was the case with just one company: the coffee capsule brand Nespresso.
Narayanan and Kapoor also expect it to stay that way in the future. And that AI will not replace other jobs either. Because programmers – just like writers – are among the professional groups for which AI promises the greatest efficiency gains.
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Not a job AI person?
By the way, there are also doubts about another theory: namely, that AI ensures that fewer young talents are hired. Researchers have now argued that the effect is real, but has a different cause: it is not AI that is to blame, but the home office. Absent junior staff are more difficult to train.
So keep your eyes open and look out for “AI washing”!
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