The year 2025 was marked by crises and disruptions in international supply chains. But there were also positive things to report.
The year 2025 was not easy for the mobility industry. Startups are looking for money, large companies have discovered that the scaling of new technologies is not progressing as quickly as hoped. At the same time, the auto industry slipped further into crisis, also because its dependence on the Chinese market and rare earths showed how fragile the industry’s successes are. Mobility has rarely been so present – and rarely so disoriented.
Scaling to the rescue
Startups continue to be seen as saviors. Especially in Europe, they are more agile, more digital and braver than the old industry. That was also evident this year, but at the same time the pressure increased. Capital has become expensive, investors are weighing up international risks and patience is still a rare commodity, especially in Germany.
Many business models that were based on growth rather than profitability were eliminated. What remains are fewer visions, more business administration. This is not a drama, but normalization. Mobility is no longer an app problem, but what it always was: infrastructure, processes, long cycles. It’s unsexy, but successful in the long run.
The auto industry, on the other hand, is in a strange in-between phase. She knows that the combustion engine has no future – and is still looking for every opportunity to extend it a little longer. Plug-in hybrids become political life insurance, and openness to technology becomes a rhetorical protective shield.
At the same time, they promise software-defined vehicles and new digital business models, but often only deliver incremental updates. The real problem is not a lack of innovation, but a lack of speed. And this is exactly where China becomes dangerous. Not because the cars are cheaper, but because the speed and the concentration on rapidly changing customer requirements are higher.
China dominates the talks
At the same time, one had to realize that the industry in Europe can be strangled faster than one says “supply chain”. In October, the Chinese government decided to regulate the export of rare earths more closely. The next shock was the crisis at chip manufacturer Nexperia. The chip shortage threatened to paralyze the entire industry. It became clear that the industry had set up supply chains too one-sidedly and that all the resulting risks had been ignored for years. After all, the EU is now trying to reduce its dependence on China by building up its own refining capacity.
But politics this year also had less of a creative effect than an administrative one. Climate goals, industrial interests and voters’ reality are in constant conflict. The major unresolved issue remains infrastructure: charging networks and, above all, a uniform pricing system remain major construction sites. Without a reliable framework, neither companies nor consumers will invest with conviction.
Lobbying doesn’t help
In this environment, lobbying is also celebrating a remarkable comeback. The greater the transformation pressure, the louder the known reflexes. It’s supposedly about jobs, but often about existing business models. Narratives like “Abolish the ban on combustion engines” or “E-fuels save everything” are politically convenient, but technically they are at best partial aspects. Lobbying in itself is not the problem – a lack of honesty is. Physics cannot be negotiated, not even in Berlin or Brussels.
Technologically, the year was unspectacular – and that’s exactly why it was interesting. Batteries got better, but not revolutionary. That will probably come next year when sodium batteries go into mass production. From the outside, little has happened with autonomous driving, but the course has been set for the next few years. With Cruise, one provider disappeared, which shows how difficult scaling is.
The year showed that many things boil down to a question that is surprisingly rarely asked openly: trust. Customer trust that the switch is worth it. Industry confidence that political framework conditions will endure. Politicians trust that people can be told uncomfortable truths. It is not technology that determines the future of mobility, but rather the willingness to make decisions – and endure their consequences.
